Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
